MUGWE: Adani Group scandal: Is Kenya at the precipice of Herb Stein’s Law?

“Ants don’t serve grasshoppers! It’s you who need us! So, who is the weaker species?”

This is a line from the movie, A Bug’s Life, which is an animated story of an ant colony living under the exploitative rule of grasshoppers. In the movie, the ant colony was forced to gather food for a gang of grasshoppers. The grasshoppers hoarded food while the ants laboured endlessly to provide for them. The grasshoppers ruled through fear and intimidation, which led the ants to believe that they were powerless to resist. This power dynamic was sustained not through social contract consent, but through control, coercion and manipulation. Because this persisted for so long, the ants believed that the system was unchangeable, and that their subservience was an inescapable reality of their life.

In the movie, Flik is the main protagonist. He is an inventive and determined ant who often finds himself at odds with the socially accepted ways of his ant colony. His colony views him as clumsy and troublesome because his unorthodox ideas frequently backfire. But they also acknowledge that despite his inadequacies, he is also resourceful, brave and has a strong sense of justice.

Flik realises that the ants vastly outnumber the gang of grasshoppers and inspires the colony to stand up for themselves. The oppressed ants eventually rise and refuse to continue submitting to the grasshopper’s demands. Through the journey of a small group of ants realising their collective power, the film highlights how corrupt and oppressive systems can be toppled when the oppressed come together to demand change.

Flik represents the catalyst for change. He is seen as challenging the status quo and inspires his fellow ants to realise that their collective strength far outweighs the power of their oppressors. The grasshoppers underestimate the ants potential to resist and fail to recognise that their exploitation cannot continue indefinitely. The moral of this movie is Herb Stein’s Law.

This law is named after Herbert Stein, an economist, which means that things that cannot go on, won’t. It depicts that imbalances or harmful behaviours ultimately reach a breaking point. They self-correct and eventually reach a point where they must change or end.

Fast forward to today, and Kenya’s sociopolitical landscape reveals striking parallels between a fictional tale and real-life struggles. For decades, citizens have endured a political and economic system that has been marred by corruption, inequality, political and economic mismanagement. The ruling class and their underwriters – like the gang of grasshoppers in A Bug’s Life – have consistently enriched themselves through closed door ‘development’ deals and political brokerage at the expense of the nation with little regard for accountability.

The economic inequality is stark with the wealthiest few controlling a disproportionate amount of the country’s resources. Everyone, including the crafters and beneficiaries of the deals, call them cartels. We all believe the cartels exist and are responsible for what has plagued this country. But they remain faceless, nameless, formless and invisible.

Fresh in our minds is what is allegedly being called the Adani Group scandal. The allegations state that this foreign company has been granted the power to manage some of our strategic infrastructure including the airports and energy sector following secretive and exploitative deals that did not pass the Public Procurement Act sniff test.

Other alleged cases that involved the misappropriation of funds spanning several decades include the infamous Goldenberg scandal, the Arror and Kimwarer Dam scandal, the Anglo Leasing scandal and the SGR scandal. The common running thread is the cozy relationships between the business elites and the politicos, the opacity in contracts awards, the negative economic impacts that stunt the socioeconomic development of other critical sectors, leaving the country with ballooning public debt and weakened public services. These scandals have become disturbingly common, revealing the rot within our governance structures.

But a new generation, dubbed Gen Z, has in the recent past stepped up. As a classic case of life imitating art, like Flik, although initially dismissed as insignificant due to their age and lack of economic or political might, they have demonstrated their gravitas in leading the ants or citizens to resist the harmful actions of the ruling class and take control of their future. They have expressed their dissatisfaction with the broken system of economic inequality, high unemployment and rampant corruption. They have highlighted the frustrations of everyday Kenyan who feels he/she been shouldering the burden of economic mismanagement while those in power enjoy immunity and luxury.

They are Kenya’s Flik challenging the entrenched acquiescence to passivity and hopelessness. They have embodied the message of courage, innovation and the power of collective action. They are demanding transparency, accountability,and reform, in a way that previous generations were less able or willing to do. They call it ‘inject’.

This generational shift mirrors the awakening of the ants. Armed with information and technology, they have rejected the long falsely held belief that the populace is powerless and are acutely aware of their ability to effect change. They have become increasingly conscious of their collective power and are pushing back against a system that seemingly benefits only a powerful few. What appears to be a simple tale of underdog courage and resilience has spread like wildfire and is emerging as a sharp allegory for social justice and revolution across all generations.

Begs the question. Is Kenya at the precipice of Herb Stein’s Law? Have the harmful behaviours of the ruling elites reached a breaking point? Have we reached a pivotal shift where things must change or end? You be the judge.

Finally, my unsolicited advice is to President Ruto. A house built on the sands of deceit and fraud will never survive the tide of accountability. The tide rises slowly, but it is unstoppable and soon floods the shores of justice. Likewise, as in Herb Stein’s Law, it is inevitable that corruption and mismanagement will face scrutiny and demands for reforms from the Fliks of Kenya. And the Fliks are growing in number. Sir, you want to be on the right side of history on this one when the ants finally rise and say enough is enough.

Corruption is worse than prostitution. The latter might endanger the morals of an individual, but the former invariably endangers the morals of the entire country – Karl Kraus