Why Raila should not rely on Uhuru’s support in 2022 race

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Why Raila should not rely on Uhuru’s support in 2022 race

By Gabriel Oguda via FB

It is bad political advise for Raila Odinga to rely on Uhuru Kenyatta’s support coming into 2022.

This is because Uhuru has no history of political decisiveness, he has always relied on shadowy figures pulling the marionette behind the curtain. It would be a big gamble for Raila Odinga to put all his eggs in Uhuru’s basket, because when that time comes for Uhuru to make the big decision, he might come short, and it would be too late for Jakom to restart his faltering machine.

There are two kinds of people in Kenyan politics. We have dreamers and we have realists. The political happenings in our shores have taught us that every political camp strategizing for 2022 need both sets of people.

The dreamers are those you need when the water is still muddy. Raila Odinga comes to shake Uhuru’s hand and all of a sudden everyone in Jubilee and ODM is thrown into a massive tailspin. No one in Jubilee knows Uhuru Kenyatta’s next move. Raila Odinga, on the other hand, has confused those in his party who had been following him to a man. This is where dreamers come in.

You need people in your side who will keep hoping that this handshake means well for your side of political support, because Kenyan politics relies on cult following, and you can do nothing without being given direction by the two protagonists up top. So you need dreamers to keep you on the positive loop as you wait for the white smoke. They will keep screaming with joy every time Uhuru Kenyatta calls Raila Odinga my brother. They will tell you power has finally come to their doorstep every time the two brothers walk holding hands. The problem with dreaming is that you will have to blindly follow a trajectory you have no control over. This can be a calamitous mistake especially if you don’t have the right binoculars to read the mood correctly.

Then there are those who draw the line on the sand and accept the situation as it is. These are the realists. They have no time to waste living in a world of make believe. Realists will tell you that the handshake has not succeeded in knocking off William Ruto’s political pulse, and the sooner you begin taking him seriously the better for your 2022 fortunes.

Realists have no time for public relations. It is not in the interest of realists to give you news that will make you feel good. For realists, there is no bad news or good news, news is news.

The news is that Prof. Kivutha Kibwana has no chance in 2022 if he isn’t supported by any two of the big four: Jakom, Uhuru, Ruto, Kalonzo. In fact, if my grandmother’s garden rake, Okuodo, was to vie for the 2022 Presidency with the support of Jakom and Ruto, he will wipe the floor with Prof. Kivutha Kibwana regardless of whoever supports his bid from the other side. That’s the reality we live in. And dreamers won’t tell you this because it is too bitter a pill to swallow on a cold Monday morning.

The other news Team Dreamers can’t get out of their mouths is that William Ruto is here to stay. It is a difficult place to be in for those wishing that he goes away. It is even a tougher reality to come to terms with for those relying on the handshake to kill off his rising mojo.

Someone mentioned something yesterday that I think hs been grossly underrated. He said that Kikuyus are supporting the handshake not because they love Raila Odinga but because they want the country to return to normalcy so that they can do business without a fuss. I will not go into analyzing that statement.

Because it speaks for itself.

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