By Gab Oguda via FB
Youâ€™ve heard this story before.
That there exists three kinds of politicians: Those who make things happen, those who watch things happen, and those who wonder whatâ€™s happening. William Ruto might not like this constant reminder, but it doesnâ€™t take away the fact that the March 2018 handshake was the day he watched his 2022 gameplan go up in smoke.
And this is why.
All political mathematics revolving around the identity of the next president of Kenya must always take into account the Kalenjin, Luo and the Kikuyu vote. Voting as a bloc, the candidate with the support of any two of those three communities will always be the man to beat going into any general election.
William Ruto had Kalenjins and Kikuyus United in one accord, making sure he had an easy stroll into 2022, until the March 2018 handshake brought Raila Odinga back into the equation. The chess grandmaster of Kenyan politics returns to the main fold just when his pupil was beginning to behave like a silverback gorilla.
Raila Odingaâ€™s reentry into the big league makes it easy for two things to happen to William Ruto.
If Kikuyus decide not to honor their promise and back another candidate for 2022, and in the likely event that William Ruto wins the presidential vote but the win is stolen from him, it will be very difficult for William Ruto to foment a revolution.
This should be a no brainer. Only Raila Odinga can destabilize the national government by paralyzing operations in Kenyaâ€™s three main cities; Nairobi, Mombasa and Kisumu. The most important town William Ruto commands is Eldoret, a rural insignificant outpost that will take only one teargas canister to be lobbed and protestors will scatter like Mike Sonkoâ€™s pidgin English after a round of adulterated beer.
William Rutoâ€™s anti-government chokehold on Eldoret is made much more difficult with the presence of the Kenya Defence Forces Baracks in Soi. They also have a bullet factory there in Eldoret so if any Kalenjin militiaman thinks they will swing a rungu against outsiders if William Rutoâ€™s vote is stolen in 2022, they have a lot of reasons to think again. The government was caught offguard in 2007. They have made a promise that it will not happen again.
The only assured avenue for William Ruto to be president is for Uhuru Kenyatta to die midway into his second term, upon which William Ruto takes the oath of office to see off the remainder of the term. The last time a Kenyan president died in office, his Deputy took over the reigns of power, and you all know how long it took to get him out of that place.
William Ruto is a poor manâ€™s Daniel Moi without the wisdom that should come with it. Daniel Moi knew when to stop, William Ruto doesnâ€™t know when to stop. If anything happens to Uhuru Kenyatta, and anything can happen to Uhuru Kenyatta, and William Ruto takes over the reigns of power, you can be sure that Daniel Moiâ€™s 24 year record as president of Kenya will have found a suitable match.
Do not be fooled that David Muratheâ€™s noise is a hollow one. Kikuyus have no problem honoring their political debt owed to William Ruto. The only misgiving they have is whether William Ruto can be trusted to honor back the debt when his turn to step down comes around. They are saying theyâ€™d rather have any other Kalenjin but not William Ruto, because it took them 24 years to get back the presidency from Daniel Moi.
They have been once bitten, and they are now twice shy.