TIFA Research Analyst Tom Wolf has not ruled out the possibility of a run-off in the upcoming August 9 presidential election, thanks to Prof George Wajackoyah.
Speaking on Citizen TV‘s State of the Race on Sunday, July 4, Dr Wolf argued that Wajackoyah is likely to eat into the numbers of the two leading presidential candidates Raila Odinga and William Ruto.
He noted that Wajackoyah’s popularity had been catapulted by his unconventional manifesto including promoting the medicinal use of Marijuana as well as snake farming.
To prove his point, he argued that the relatively newly-minted politician had secured a 7 per cent support in Nairobi with the numbers eaten from support previously enjoyed by the Deputy President.
“I think that given the unconventionality of his offerings to Kenyans, I have to say that anything is possible. You may recall that when TIFA did a Nairobi County Survey three weeks ago, he was at 7 per cent,” stated Wolf.
He further noted that Wajackoyah’s support base is the youngest demographic of between 18-year-olds and 24-year-olds whose voter turnout has been the lowest historically.
“I went back and looked at the data and I saw that he has about four times more support among people in the youngest age group, the 18-24 years than he does for people over 35 years old.
“We know in our data also that in terms of both voter registration and the likelihood of voting based on past election data, people in that younger group are less likely to vote than older people. Will that seven per cent even materialise,” Wolf added.
In the TIFA survey that covered Nairobi County in June, Wajackoyah, a lawyer by profession, had increased his support base to 7 per cent while that of DP Ruto sank to 25 per cent.
On the other hand, Azimio la Umoja Presidential candidate, Raila Odinga, hit the 50 percent mark, from 41 percent in May 2022.
The poll further showed that the Roots party is at par with the ruling Jubilee party’s popularity in Nairobi county at four per cent.
Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) party’s popularity increased from 26 percent to 30 percent while UDA’s has remained constant at 22 percent.
Wolf was, however, cautious that individuals who would vote for Wajackoyah would do it knowing that he is not going to win the election.